By Idris Mohammed (Opinion)
On July 30th this year, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) met in Nigerian’s capital Abuja and convened an extra-ordinary summit to address the July’s military coup in Niger republic. The meeting was held under the chairmanship of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and chair of the ECOWAS Authority, the head of states, foreign affairs ministers and the chairperson of African Union reviewed and discussed extensively the rationale behind the coup and illegal detention of democratically elected President of Niger Republic, Muhammad Bazoum.
In addition, the group collectively condemned the coup by calling the immediate release and reinstatement of the President Muhammad Bazoum as a President and Head of State of the Republic of Niger. Few hours after the meeting, the military junta addressed the press and reinstated their commitment to remain in power and rejected any form of call from the ECOWAS authority.
As the head of ECOWAS, the Nigerian president have already committed to show his power that he can handle the situation. Nigeria firstly cut off the electricity supply to Niger, shutdown borders and write letter to country`s legislative arm of government seeking permission to consider military interventions in Niger as the last resort. Ecowas threatens force to restore democracy by reinstating the president Mohammed Bazoum as it had given the military government one week ultimatum to reverse their decision.
After the one week ultimatum expired, ecowas met again in August 10 reviewed the situation and mapped out the possible measures to be considered in tackling the military junta in Nigeria. During the meeting, ecowas ordered the activation of a standby force for possible use against the junta that took power in Niger in July, saying it wanted a peaceful restoration of democracy but all options including force were on the table. Nigeria seems to be ready to use military intervention, though the Nigerian senate urged the government to look at political and diplomatic options rather than the military force.
Niger’s neighbor Nigeria, where the bulk of the troops are likely to come front, voices against the use of military forces are growing louder every minutes ranging from security experts, religious and traditional leaders down to the citizens of the country. Despite what appear to be a collective decision of the members of ECOWAS, Nigeria’s position is very complex one taking cognizance of holding the chairmanship and its very closest with Niger not only in term of border but historical and traditional ties. The anxiety is increasing in northwest region states, what many don’t know is one in every of five residents of Sokoto is from Niger or has connection with Niger Republic. Same applies to some part of Katsina, Jigawa and Kebbi states. The notion of invading Niger Republic, a country located in West Africa and shares border directly with Nigeria raises a move both impractical and counterproductive.
First and foremost, any military invasion of Niger entails a significant loss of lives, resources and generate serious humanitarian crisis. Over the last one decade, the two countries have been facing conflict by violent extremists’ attacks by Boko Haram and Islamic state along Lake Chad Basin communities consisting of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states in the northeast region of Nigeria while Diffa in Niger Republic. Same situation in the northwest region of Nigeria where four Nigerians of Katsina, Sokoto, Zamfara and Kebbi state have been facing protracted banditry conflict that displaced thousands of people. To make it worst, there is currently over 80,000 Nigerians mostly from the mentioned states affected by the banditry that are staying in Maradi as Refugee under the care of UNCHR.
Additionally, Niger Republic as a key ally in the fight against Boko Haram, Islamic state and bandits facing threat from its neighbor, this may bring distrust between the two countries and of course will jeopardize the counter-terrorism war in Lake Chad Basin areas. Therefore, invading Niger would result in unnecessary suffering for innocent civilians and would likely exacerbate existing humanitarian crises not only in Niger but also in Nigeria.
Furthermore, an invasion of Niger Republic could destabilize the entire West African region. Given the interconnectedness of nations and the potentials for spillover effect, military action could lead to a chain of reaction and instability, engulfing neighboring countries especially those that have been battling with violent extremists’ attacks like Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea, Chad, Cameroon and Algeria. Perhaps, creating larger scale crisis that could be challenging to contain in the region.
Diplomacy and peaceful negotiations should always be prioritized over military interventions. ECOWAS should in engage in constructive dialogue not only with Nigerien military junta but also Burkina Faso, Mali and Chad and working through diplomatic channels can offer path towards resolving conflict and addressing underlying issues that may have contributed the tension. United Nations and African should play a role in facilitating discussions to find common ground and sustainable solutions. By working together to find diplomatic means, we could uphold the values of humanity and avoid the devastating consequences of armed conflict in the region.
Idris Mohammed is a conflict researcher & journalist, he is from Conflict Research Network of West Africa and currently a member of United State Institute of Peace Nigerian Network of Facilitators writes from northwest region of Nigeria. You can reach out to him via his email address idrismpyar@gmail.com or twitter handle @Edrees4p